Will Climate Change Make the Changnienia amoena Extinct?
Climate change is changing the world we live in. Everything from rising temperatures to changes in rainfall patterns are silently affecting the environment in which plants grow.
Changnienia amoena is a species native to China, usually found in Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Anhui, Hunan, Zhejiang, Hubei provinces, China. This flowering plant was listed in the IUCN Red List as ENDANGERED on April 30th, 2004.
An endemic plant, Changnienia amoena lives in the mountain forests of China. It prefers a warm, humid environment, but climate change could make its habitat less suitable. To make matters worse, the area where the orchid grows is not extensive and its distribution is very limited. So as climate change intensifies, it may struggle to find a new place to grow.
A new study by three Chinese scientists looks at how climate change is affecting the distribution of Changnienia amoena. At the same time, the study assesses whether existing conservation measures are adequate and effective in protecting the Changnienia amoena’s survival.
To do this, the research team used a method called 'integrated modelling', which combines data on the Changnienia amoena’s distribution with environmental factors (such as temperature, rainfall, soil type, etc.) to calculate where its suitable habitat is and how it is likely to change in the future.
After a series of calculations, the research team came to several important conclusions.
The results showed that the four main environmental factors influencing its distribution were the mean daily temperature range, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the seasonality of temperature and the precipitation of the warmest quarter. This orchid was currently mainly distributed in southern Anhui, central and western Hubei, western Hunan, southern Shaanxi and eastern Sichuan provinces. The total suitable area of C. amoena was 58.33 × 104 km2, accounting for only 6.08% of China's total area, which is larger than known. However, only 4.48% of the suitable area is within national nature reserves and 3.33% within provincial nature reserves. During the last interglacial and mid-Holocene, suitable areas were larger than at present. Under six future climate scenarios, its suitable areas could decrease by an average of 2.26% compared to today, with severe habitat fragmentation. Overall, the centroid of C. amoena is expected to shift to the southeast in the future. Therefore, the results show that climate change has a negative impact on its potential distribution. The researchers recommend the expansion of protected areas or the establishment of new protected areas for C. amoena in China.
Original Chinese link:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G3aNkysAL2emWhmxdiLAhQ
Edited by: YJ
Reviewed By: Maggie
Contact: v10@cbcgdf.org; +8617319454776
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